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Wednesday, August 24, 2011

U.S. Federal Bank Strategy and bank lending

U.S. Federal bank lends money to financial institutions and banks for free or at a low interest rate; so financial institutions and banks have money, let's call all of them banks, later federal banks issue bonds and these banks buy these bonds using borrowed money from federal bank; demand is created, bond yields stay lower and prices higher.  What is risk return? Banks do not have risk investing in bonds, because U.S. government bonds are called "risk free", so no risk for banks; as for federal bank it has risk when lends money to investment banks, because banks may default (probability exists).  So, that means banks making profit with-ought any to risk.  Later federal bank purchases back these bonds at a higher price.  So, federal bank does not have any profit for lending (it may even loss, when bays back bonds), in spite of incurring a risk (when lending to investment bank).  What is the logic hare? Logic is federal bank would have higher expense on bonds if rates were higher than that.  So, federal bank economically is doing better.
No institution (foreign or local) would buy its bonds with-ought this strategy, because bond yields are lower than inflation rate.  
Question is does this strategy helps economy to recover and how long this strategy will hold?

Unemployment and bank lending
Currently, U.S. has unemployment problem, about 9% of its population is unemployed, and in reality this figure is somewhere 18% or more.  Banks do not lend, that means small businesses do not borrow, that means they do not create jobs, main part of jobs are created from small businesses.  From point of view of banks, now it is not economically viable to start lending actively - because of current deleveraging process, individuals and companies still straggling to repay borrowed money.  Other thing is, if banks start lending actively, that triggers money multiplier to accelerate, thus inflation will accelerate, this may not be in the banks best interest, because they will receive back devalued dollar from old loans, so economic profits will decrease. 

As for big businesses, they are still firing staff, their profit margins are swelling, because they decreasing costs like wage costs.  Big corporations are in a good shape now.

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