My recent analysis and forecasting shows me that in developed countries there is 75% probability of similar or bigger crisis wave in 2012 or in 2013, than it was in 2008 -2009. I won’t go through details (I have done that enough last 2 years), juts I add that nothing fundamentally had changed positively, risks still are there and I even think that risks had increased.
China manages very well to decreased temperature from overheated economy, during one year time monetary policy management increased interest rates 5 times, that decreased GDP growth to 9.1% (last quarter) and decreased inflation, which was an amazing job. China still has risks in real estate, but there is a high probability that China economy will have a soft landing. If things don’t change it can start decreasing rates from next year to promote more growth. China growth is extremely important for global economic growth.
