Investment, Finance & Economics: April 2011

Friday, April 29, 2011

Investment Outlook

I think this can be the turning point in capital markets and investors should start rebalancing and reallocation portfolios…Some industries probably become more attractive than others…so investors need to be more cautious than before, because risks may be increasing; meantime USD should strengthen against EUR in the short term...but probably weaken against basket in the long term

Trump to China: "Listen You Motherf***ers...."

Saturday, April 23, 2011

USD Outlook

Recently, S&P changed

US economic outlook from positive to negative. This means risk may increase and that increase may reflect on future interest rates (especially if CPI reflects reality).

government spending and deficit are not decreased, US dollar will weaken further in the future. But, if US starts decreasing its deficit that means it will have less available resources for future economic growth, that depresses the economy and slows further. Austerity plan can be difficult do implement and that is why I think dollar value probably decreases further in the long term. Meantime corrections for USD can happen sometimes in the short term.

We already see how commodity prices are increasing and that may reflecting the possible USD devaluation, precious metals and generally all natural resource prices are skyrocketing.

Thursday, April 14, 2011

Market correction...

markets started to correct, but some industries still at high levels, these industries may reflect the fear of possible inflation acceleration. Market shows US inflation is 2.65%.

We will see soon how the market reacts completeon of QE2.

Saturday, April 9, 2011

Inflation, debt refinancing and more

Currently, as I believe US actual inflation is around 5 to 8%, I think upper one is less than half of Georgian inflation. In US CPI basket some assets represent highly illiquid or frozen assets and that misrepresents actual CPI.

Also, I want to mention that recent rally of GEL against USD probably reflects country risk reduction in terms of valuation of 10 years sovereign Eurobonds - which was the very good decision to refinance the old debt in spite of budget condition.